Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin. If the central bank does ease ...

Since the recent US government shutdown may prevent the release of the October inflation and labor market data, inflation proxies are considered here to assess what the Fed would do next. September's ...

With one exception, this monthly indicator has correctly identified more than a half-dozen recessionary bear market bottoms after 1929. Multiple recession-probability indicators, along with the ...